Africa’s political lesson in booting incumbents ignored in Nigeria to Buhari’s advantage

As at the last count, there are almost 79 presidential aspirants contesting for the presidency in 2019 on different political platforms.
All of them claim to be motivated to enter the race by the failure of the Muhammadu Buhari government to reform education, health care, or even arrest the rapid spread of poverty across the land. They claim they could not countenance, and Nigeria may not survive another four years of the Buhari government.
However, examples from Africa and even Nigeria has shown that opposition fragmentation and disunity most times helps the incumbent win elections as the fragmented opposition just divide the votes and end up fighting one another rather than fighting together to end the rein of the incumbent.
Across Africa, the spectacle of opposition winning election was so rare until the turn of the 21st century when they got the trick and changed tact.
In 2000, a group of opposition parties in Senegal joined forces to defeat to defeat President Abdou Diouf of the Senegalese Democratic Party to bring about the end of 40 years of one-party dominance in the country.
Shortly after, in 2002, Kenya’s opposition repeated the trick and deposed the incumbent. The numbers were obvious already from previous elections. In the 1992 and 1997 elections, the opposition parties cumulatively garnered over 60 percent of the votes cast but still lost the election to the incumbent. In 2002, they came together under the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) to defeat the Kenyan African National Union (KANU) that had ruled the country since independence in 1963.
Since then, opposition parties have mastered the art of pre-electoral coalition and unity to confront entrenched and often dominant parties. This strategy has successfully changed governments in Senegal, Liberia, Malawi, Madgascar, Mali, Mauritius, The Gambia and even Nigeria.
Faced with the prospect of a long rule by the governing Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) since the return to democratic rule in 1999 and a weakened and fragmented opposition, the Nigerian opposition parties came together to form the All Progressives Congress (APC) that successfully ended the rein of the PDP that had previously vowed to govern Nigeria for 60 uninterrupted years.
As the disenchantment with the Buhari regime gained momentum, over 39 political parties came together last year to form a coalition – Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP) to wrestle power from the APC. They also agreed to present just one presidential candidate.
However, the coalition has gone awry and everyone is going at it alone.
Regardless, many see the 2019 presidential election as a clear contest between Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and the incumbent, President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC.
“I do not think for a second, nor do those campaigning outside of the APC and PDP think they have any chance of becoming President,” said Ogho Okiti, president and CEO of Times Economics Consulting, based in Abuja via phone.
“There is no credible third force opposition in the country. The other candidates will only split the votes of the opposition and will help the cause of the incumbent,” he concluded.
Opeyemi Agbaje, CEO of RTC Advisory Services Limited believes it is a clear contest between the two parties, despite all the reservations Nigerians may have. He believes all the younger candidates are only helping to ensure the re-election of the incumbent who is deeply unpopular in the southern and north central parts of the country.
“Buhari has lost the southern youth votes that helped him to power in 2015. These may now either vote for an Oby Ezekwesili, Fela Durotoye, Kingsley Morghalu or Omoyele Sowore, further fragmenting the opposition vote,” he said on phone to BusinessDay.
The fears expressed are probably genuine.
Most of the candidates and platforms lack visibility, financial capacity and grassroots structures like major parties. What is more, time and resources are critical to mobilisation and campaign and they do not have these.
Most of them do not have the resources to campaign far and wide into every nook and cranny in the country and most of them came so late into the race, usually through obscure parties that even the most enlighten struggle to mention. Which leads to the question about their real intentions of contesting for the presidency.
“I do not believe these candidates are as naive as they want us to believe and I know they know they do not stand any realistic chance of winning,” said  Agbaje.

 CHRIS AKOR 

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